Broker Check
Market Rally Advances to New Highs

Market Rally Advances to New Highs

January 23, 2024

After a rocky start to 2024, the stock market climbed last week and the S&P 500 hit all time new highs on Friday. It took just over two years for the S&P to regain the previous highs of 1/4/2022.

Before we talk about the current bull market and what may come, let’s quickly look back at the bear market of 2022. It was a relatively mild bear market that kept the market down for the past two years, but it was financially and emotionally painful none the less. Although unpleasant, bear markets are a part of investing in the stock market and hard to avoid. They are also factored into long-term investment return forecasts for your portfolio. In the short-term they can look and feel devastating for your portfolio but the bull market that follows keeps you on the right path for investing success.

Now on to the current bull market, which began on 10/13/2022. Regaining all-time new highs is an important milestone in a bull market, and in the market cycle analysis I use to analyze and forecast market cycles. Bull markets vary widely and can last anywhere from a couple of years up to over 10 years. Based on historical data, it’s highly likely this bull market will continue through 2024, and most likely through 2025. It can last much longer than that, but risks begin to increase as the bull market ages. This year is a perfect time to seek the highest gains because the risks are the lowest they will likely be for the next few years. It doesn’t mean there will be large gains but the risks to the downside are relatively low. I believe the S&P 500 could rise up to 5500 to 6000 sometime during 2024, but keep in mind these highs may occur in the middle of the year and not at the end of the year. Also, within any 12-month time span there is almost guaranteed a short-term drop of 5-10% and possibly 10-20%, which can result in good buying opportunities.

Photograph by: Christian Waske on Unsplash

.

.

.

.

.